What the “Big Beautiful Bill” Means for Consumer Behavior in Food and Beverage

For consumer insights leaders in food and beverage, QSR, or CPG, understanding the implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" goes far beyond public policy headlines. It is about decoding the shifts happening in real time, in behavior, sentiment, and spending, and translating them into insight-driven strategy.

Because when legislation touches food access, affordability, and identity, you are not just dealing with policy. You are dealing with culture. And culture, as we know, drives markets.

Consumers Are Being Asked to Do More with Less

At the center of the legislation are projected cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), totaling as much as $230 billion over the next decade. These changes include increased work requirements, reduced benefit eligibility, and smaller monthly disbursements.

For the average household, that can mean the loss of up to 45 percent of monthly food assistance. This is not just a low-income consumer issue. Many of the affected are working families, gig workers, and older adults who fall into the “middle vulnerable” segment. These are individuals not traditionally counted in poverty statistics, but still stretched thin.

Takeaway for Insights Teams: Rethink your segmentation models. Income level is no longer a sufficient proxy for financial resilience. Behavioral signals such as basket composition, channel shifts, and brand trade-downs are now more predictive than ever.

Food Inflation Is Reshaping Priorities

From 2019 to 2023, food-at-home prices have risen by more than 25 percent. In 2025 alone, the CPI for food is expected to grow another 2.9 percent, with many staples, including dairy, eggs, and meat, still well above historical norms.

Tariff-related price increases could add an additional $4,900 per year in grocery expenses for some families. This is not theoretical. Consumers are already reducing basket size, substituting premium items, and prioritizing value across product categories.

Takeaway for Insights Teams: Double down on elasticity modeling. It is not just about price sensitivity anymore. It is about emotional tradeoffs. Which items are non-negotiable, and which are now viewed as indulgent? How are value perceptions evolving in real time?

QSR and Restaurant Brands Are Entering a Tipping Transition

With the bill eliminating taxes on tips, there is renewed focus on service industry compensation. However, what we are seeing in social conversation is more friction than celebration.

Consumers are experiencing “tip fatigue” as digital prompts and rising costs create confusion and resentment. Meanwhile, service workers are caught between higher expectations and lower take-home pay.

Takeaway for Insights Teams: Reframe the guest journey. Where tipping used to signal appreciation, it now signals tension. Test messaging, transparency, and payment experience to minimize friction and maintain brand trust.

Rural and Underserved Consumers Are Facing Structural Strain

Rural households face 18 percent more food insecurity than urban ones. Many are already navigating food deserts and limited healthcare infrastructure. With Medicaid and SNAP reductions, those systems will be stretched further.

For brands, this presents both a challenge and a mandate. Rural consumers are not just another demographic. They are now a frontline audience for brand relevance and social impact.

Takeaway for Insights Teams: Activate regional intelligence. National trends do not translate evenly across zip codes. Rural-specific ethnography, geo-social listening, and community engagement data will give you an edge in understanding localized needs.

From Product to Purpose: How Consumers Are Redefining Value

The Big Beautiful Bill is accelerating a shift in how people define value. It is not just about dollars, but also about dignity, trust, and access. Brands that speak only to price will be commoditized. Brands that speak to shared values will be remembered.

Consumers are now associating food with agency, stability, and fairness. That is not just sentiment. It is strategy fuel.

Takeaway for Insights Teams: Move beyond product preferences. Start tracking cultural associations with your category. What emotional or social role does your product play during a period of systemic constraint?

Final Insight: Food Is Where Policy Becomes Personal

This legislation is a wake-up call. Not just for government or advocacy groups, but for businesses tasked with understanding and serving a diverse and evolving consumer base.

The role of the consumer insights leader is not just to report on change. It is to help the organization anticipate it, interpret it, and act on it.

You are not here to confirm what you already know. You are here to reveal what your brand has not yet seen.

Let’s get to work.